Weekly Metals Update June 6th

Gold and Silver prices have been strong since last week. Spot stands marginally higher at $4,596 CAD per ounce for Gold. Silver outperformed, up nearly 8% in the past 5 days. It stands currently at $48.84 CAD per ounce. On Thursday Silver hit a 12 year high in USD and broke above a key technical level at $35 USD/Oz, one day after Wells Fargo and JP Morgan collectively stopped their intent to deliver over 100 contracts, representing over a half a million physical ozs on the Comex Futures. Dollar Index fluctuations are nearly flat at 98.71. Gold approached a nearly 1 month high on Thursday pushed all week by Safe Haven demand. Equities made a triple top above 6000 on the SP500 ES futures on Thursday with risk on sentiment driven by Trump's posting that he “just concluded a very good phone call with President XI” and it “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Weekly Jobless Claims jumped by 8,000 to 247,000 seasonally adjusted, a boon for Gold at the expense of the larger economy. Last week's number was revised down to 239,000. Silver's outperformance has reduced The Gold/Silver ratio about 5% to 94.04. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bond rates have backed down from their highs above 5% to 4.89 and 4.88% respectively. The probability of a 25bps rate cut in 2025 as priced by PolyMarket fell from 30 to 25% though the probability of a 50 bps cut is priced nearly identically at 21%. This might suggest that if a cut were required it would happen in a larger 50 bps increment. Any hopes that Softening US Economic Data could indicate a Dovish Federal Reserve must be held in check.