Weekly Market Update Sept 12

Gold and Silver prices are very strong again this week with gold setting a new all time high of $5074CAD currently back $20 to $5053.. Spot gold rose 2% in the past 5 days and crossed $5000/oz CAD on Monday. Silver is stronger at $58.55CAD, up 3% in the past 5 days. US Dollar index DXY is flat at 97.65. SP500 Volatility Index VIX fell 6%. Risk-on sentiment continues (for now) as we approach the Sept 17th FOMC rate decision. It is still widely accepted to be a rate cut of 25 bps with the possibility of another cut later in the year, despite the 911,000 reduction in jobs estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This represents a 50% increase over last year’s adjustment, and comes after Trump fired the commissioner last month claiming without evidence the Jobs Report was “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. WTI futures are up 1% to $62.76 with both oversupply and geopolitical concerns controlling hedge books. Equities marched higher up 2% in the past 5 days of trading. ES SP500 futures are currently 11 handles off the all-time high of 6,596. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has won a key decision in Federal Court allowing her to remain in her position while she fights the President's effort to fire her for mortgage fraud because she had claimed two properties as “primary residences.” US District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled that was insufficient ground to fire a Fed Governor “for cause.” Cook’s vote will almost certainly be involved in the upcoming FOMC decision on Wednesday, though Trump's team is likely to appeal Cobb's decision. Crypto is still quiet with BTC up 4% this week to $114,860 USD and ETH up 1% to $4520. S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR slightly out performed up 2% in the past 5 days at $220.78. Weekly Jobless Claims approach a 4 year high rising 27,000 to 263,000 possibly influenced by the Texas Flood in July. The Gold/Silver ratio fell 1½% to 86.34 with strong gold and stronger silver. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds both fell nearly 20 bps to 4.62 and 4.66% respectively. Japanese 30yr bonds fell back from its all time high of 3.30% to 3.22% . Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir PLTR rose 4% this week, currently $164.36. Wednesday's assasination of conservaive pundit Charlie Kirk did not appear to affect markets. FBI claim to have located the weapon in the woods not the rooftop, and claim to have evidence of "Transgender and Antifascist Ideology." FBI have posted a picture of the suspect, a thin light skinned man wearing a ball cap, sport sunglasses and a long sleeve shirt with a pressed image of what appears to be an American Flag. The probability of a single 25 bps rate cut in 2025 as priced by PolyMarket fell 14 pts to 5%, the probability of 50 bps in cuts fell 13pts to 34% and the probability of 75 bps in cuts rose 21pts to 47%. Short term rates are down 4bps in the 2yr at 3.55. US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth, is up 10 cents to 4.67usd/lb.