Gold and Silver prices have consolidated with Gold down 1% in the past 5 days at $6767 CAD still up 6% month over month. Silver is down 10% this month and 2% from the last 5 days now $106.60 CAD. Silver is still up 134% Year over Year. US Dollar index DXY is down 0.5% this week at 97.05 and down 10% YOY. SP500 Volatility Index VIX rose 14%. SP 500 ES futures fell 1.5% and are now trading 6850 having pierced 7000 - five weeks in a row yet unable to stay above that key technical level.
The current events landscape this week is both indicative of persistent structural issues and possible catalysts for market movement.
The Wall Street Journal attracted criticism in its reporting of “The booming business of luxury grocery stores” and their “Gen Zer” and “millennial” customers “Splurging on Rotisserie Chicken.” Conversely, betting market giant Polymarket opened NY city’s first “free grocery store” as a publicity move to advocate for Free Markets.
AG Pam Bondi has been widely criticized for deflecting claims that the DOJ is suppressing the Epstein files when she pointed out that the Dow Jones is trading at a new all time high above 50,000 and the SP500 is “near 7,000.”
On Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Trump administration officially revoked the 2009 "endangerment finding," a landmark 16-year-old scientific and legal determination that greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare. This action effectively removes the legal basis for federal regulations on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from vehicles, power plants, and other major sources.
Crude WTI futures are flat at $62.97 and down 11.25% YOY. NYMEX NG natural gas futures which spiked over 100% above $7 in January are now trading $3.16 USD per Million BTU, down 6% month over month.
Crypto continues to suffer with BTC down 5% this week to $66,800 well below the November low of $80,500 USD. BTC has fallen sharply for two weeks following the government shutdown created by democrat filibustering of DHS funding in the wake of the Minneapolis ICE protests. ETH is down 5% at $1956 this past week. The crypto crash originally started on Oct. 10 when Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports
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Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir is down 4.5% - PLTR currently trades at $129.13, and up only 15% YOY after falling from a 52 week high of 207.52. NVDA is up 5.75% in the past 5 days at $186.94.
S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR rose 1% in the past 5 days to $267.68. XAR is up 53.75% in the past 12 months. XAR rose 4% on the Monday following Maduro's weekend capture but has been declining steadily for the past 4 weeks as geopolitical risks like the President's Threats against Iran and Greenland have softened.
Weekly Jobless Claims fell 5,000 to 227,000 for the period ending Feb 7th. The Gold/Silver ratio rose 1% now at 63.45 from a low this year of 43.52 after falling steadily since late October and from its March high of 107. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds are down 9 and 10 bps to 4.70 and 4.75% respectively.
Japan's 40-year bond yields which surged to 4.21% in January continued falling back, currently trading 3.66%.
The Polymarket quoted probability of a total 100 bps in cuts coming in 2026 is currently 13%, 75 bps in cuts in 2026 stands at 25% and the probability of 50 bps is 26%. Short term rates are up 1 bp in the 2yr at 3.48.
US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth, fell 2.5% to $5.75 usd/lb after hitting a new all time high in January of $6.58 usd/lb.