Gold and Silver prices range-traded with Gold up 1% in the past 5 days at $6894 CAD still up 6.5% month over month. Silver is down 15% this month and up 8% from the last 5 days now $110.76CAD. Silver is still up 143% Year over Year. US Dollar index DXY is up 1% this week at 97.95 and down 8% YOY. SP500 Volatility Index VIX rose 14%. SP 500 ES futures rose 0.5% and are now trading 6896 having failed to trade above 7000 for the first week this year. The Dow Jones 30 is below 50,000.
Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) plan to force a vote on the possibility of war against Iran. The US has built up war ships near Iran and on Thursday, the president gave Iran 10 days to make a deal regarding their ability to create a nuclear weapon. The resolution resolves to “terminate the use of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran or any part of its government or military, unless explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force against Iran.” Defense Sector Stocks have risen with these announcements.
Crude WTI futures are up 5% at $66.24 and now down only 6% YOY. NYMEX NG natural gas futures which spiked over 100% above $7 in January are now trading $2.98 USD per Million BTU, near the 52 week low of $2.62 printed in August.
Crypto bleeding has eased with BTC down 1% this week to $68,100 and ETH down 4% at $1967. The crypto crash originally started on Oct. 10 when Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports
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Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir is down 0.5% - PLTR currently trades at $134.89, and up only 12% YOY after falling from a 52 week high of 207.52. NVDA is down 2.75% in the past 5 days at $187.90.
S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR rose 5.25% in the past 5 days to $284.46. XAR is up 67% in the past 12 months. XAR had been declining steadily for the previous 4 weeks as geopolitical risks eased against Iran and Greenland but have rebounded with the announcements of the upcoming vote in Congress and the president's short 10 day window. The Polymarket odds that “Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31st” stand at 60% on $130,000 volume.
Weekly Jobless Claims fell 23,000 to 206,000 for the period ending Feb 13th. The Gold/Silver ratio fell 6% now at 62.40 up from a low this year of 43.52 after falling steadily since late October and from its March high of 107. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds are down 5 bps to 4.65 and 4.70% respectively.
Japan's 40-year bond yields which surged to 4.21% in January have fallen back, currently trading 3.56%.
The Polymarket quoted probability of a total 100 bps in cuts coming in 2026 is currently 12%, 75 bps in cuts in 2026 stands at 23% and the probability of 50 bps is 27%. Short term rates are flat in the 2yr at 3.48.
US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth, rose 0.25% to $5.78 usd/lb after hitting a new all time high in January of $6.58 usd/lb.