Weekly Market Update Aug 22

Gold and Silver prices are soft this  week. Spot gold rose 1% currently at $4,642 CAD. Silver is up since last week at $53.05CAD. US Dollar index DXY is up 3/4% to  98.62. SP500 Volatility Index VIX has risen all week in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s last keynote address at Jackson Hole on Friday.   WTI futures are down 60c from this time last week to $63.36 despite reports of US inventory declines. Equities SP500 rolled over, down 1% in 5 days.  ES SP500 futures are currently 115  handles off the all-time high now at 6,389.50. On Monday OpenAi CEO Sam Altman sparked fears in the tech sector saying “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,".  Crypto has softened with BTC down 3% this week to  $113,250 USD and ETH down 9% to $4275.  S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR underperformed again, now down 1.5% this week to $213.37. Weekly Jobless Claims fell 11,000, to 235,000 - their highest level since June.  The Gold/Silver ratio  fell 0.5 % to  87.35 with slightly rising  gold and silver. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds both rose to 4.89 and 4.91% respectively. Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir PLTR lost 13%  this week, currently $156.18 after Citron Research, the Short Seller made famous by shorting GameStop unsuccessfully, stated that fundamentally PLTR should be trading closer to $40. Palantir's growth prospects are unclear as a government contractor since the scale of their contracts can grow by an order of magnitude with a simple announcement.  The Trump Administration announced on Thursday that all 55 million US Visa Holders are subject to “continuous vetting” including social media and are therefore vulnerable to deportation by ICE. Palatirs' year over year revenue crossed $1 Billion in Q2 and in April they were awarded a $30 Million dollar contract with ICE. Last week AG Pam Bondi fired a 37 year old DOJ employee for throwing a sandwich saying "This is an example of the Deep State we have been up against for seven months as we work to refocus..." Nevertheless, the defence sector and domestic surveillance Ai has underperformed this week despite strong US government budget driven tailwinds. The probability of a 25 bps rate cut in 2025 as priced by PolyMarket rose  6 pts to  26%,  the probability of  50 bps in cuts fell  3pts to 38% and the probability of 75 bps in cuts fell 8pts to  15%. Short term rates are up 4 bps in the 2yr at 3.78.   US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth,  is still flat after July 30th’s collapse of 24% to 4.45usd/lb on news of a surprise tariff exemption.