Gold and Silver range traded with Gold down 1% in the past 5 days at $5686CAD and down 3% month over month. Silver is down 6% this month and down 1% from the last 5 days now $81.53 CAD. Silver is still up 59% Year over Year. US Dollar index DXY is down 2% this week at 99.74 and up 1% YOY. SP500 Volatility Index VIX is down 9%. SP 500 ES futures rose 2% and are now trading 7557 off 100 handles from their all time highs and having remained above 7000 since mid April..
Capital markets experienced high volatility last week driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve rate hold, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and shifting inflation data. Ukraine directly targeted an Iranian-flagged ship on Saturday, July 25, 2026, marking the first time the war in Ukraine has collided directly with the active military conflict involving Iran.
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%
U.S. headline PCE inflation eased to 3.7% in June (down from 4.1% in May), while core PCE edged down to 3.3%, keeping pressure on central bank policy.
Driven by inflation anxieties and a hawkish Fed pause, the Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rising past 5.2%.
Crude WTI futures are down 2% at $80.22 and now up 20% YOY. On March 2, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
On June 17th President Trump stated that US oil reserves would run dry in 4 weeks without an Iranian compromise. “We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said
NYMEX NG natural gas futures which spiked over 100% above $7 in January are up 1% this week now trading $2.77 USD per Million BTU.
The Crypto collapse has paused near the 52 wk low, with BTC down 1% this week to $63,100 and ETH down 1% at $1870. Crypto Holding Company Strategy MSTR is down 1% at $93.28 over the past 5 days. .
Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir is down 3% - PLTR currently trades at $123.06, and down 23% YOY after falling from a 52 week high of 207.52.
NVDA is down 4% in the past 5 days at $200.75, and is under a 5 Trillion dollar market cap. NVDA accounts for approximately 8% of the entire SP500
SPCX SpaceX is down 8% this week at $108.37, below $2 Trillion dollars in market cap. Spacex Fiscal Year loss stands just below $5 billion.
S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR fell 3% in the past 5 days to $264.86 after making a new All Time High in March of 295.23 following the assasination of the Iranian Supreme Leader. XAR is up 13% Year to Date
Weekly Jobless Claims were up 9,000 at 197,000 for the week ending July 18th.
The Gold/Silver ratio is flat now at 69.81 up from a low this year of 43.52 after falling steadily since late October and from its March high of 107. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds yields remain above 5%, currently 5.25 and 5.24% respectively.
The Polymarket quoted probability of a total 0 rate cuts is at 89%. The probability of at least a 25 bps rate hike is currently 57%. Short term rates stand above 4% in the 2yr at 4.25%
US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth, are up 2% $6.53 usd/lb after a recent new all time high in this week of $6.72 usd/lb..