Market Update Aug 15

Gold and Silver prices are soft this  week. Spot gold fell 1% currently at $4,608 CAD. Silver is flat since last week at $52.52CAD. US Dollar index DXY is up ¼% to  98.27. Late last week Times of India reported a “doomsday” in the Jewelry market with tariffs going from 25% to 50%. The Chair of the GJEPC Gem and Jewelry Export and Promotion Council countered with a telling reality "We will reroute our products through other countries…”  adding "Dubai is the nearest destination for us…. However, we will do everything legally,"  WTI futures are flat up 10c from this time last week $63.93 . The risk of increased Russian oil exports from easing sanction was balanced against geopolitical tensions when Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Russian talks with Ukraine fail. Equities rose 2% to a new SP500 record close on Thursday with CPI flat month over month at an annualised 2.7% showing only modest impacts from Trump tariffs.  ES SP500 futures are currently only 12  handles off the high of the week at 6,490.50. On Thursday Reuters reported the US is sending air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean Sea to fight drug cartels. The sources said drug gangs have been designated terrorist organizations. Last week AG Pam Bondi offered a $50M reward for the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro prompting Maduro to offer a $50,000,000 reward for the release of the Epstein files.  Crypto has pumped to new highs with BTC up 1/2% this week to  $118,000 USD after setting a new record of $123,500 and ETH up  25% on the week to $4490.  S&P AeroSpace and Defense ETF XAR underperformed again, now down ½% this week to $216.56. Weekly Jobless Claims fell 3000, to 224,000 in the USA. Canadians numbers were not as nice, losing 41,000 jobs in July with Canadian unemployment flat at 6.9%.  The Gold/Silver ratio  fell 1.5 % to  87.69 with soft gold and flat silver. Longer 20 yr and 30 yr US government bonds both rose to 4.85 and 4.88% respectively. Ai powered Government Contractor Palantir PLTR dipped 2%  this week, currently $181.02 after last week's nearly 20% rise.  The probability of a 25 bps rate cut in 2025 as priced by PolyMarket fell  2 pts to  20%,  the probability of  50 bps in cuts rose 2pts to 41% and the probability of 75 bps in cuts rose 1pt to  23%. Short term rates are flat in the 2yr at 3.74.   US Comex Copper Futures HG, a leading indicator of economic growth,  is nearly flat after July 30th’s collapse of 24% to 4.49usd/lb on news of a surprise tariff exemption.