Gold eases to C$5,805 as Bank of Canada hike bets surge ahead of October 28 — Precious Metals Daily Update, October 20, 2026

Gold eased on Tuesday, trading around US$4,134.89 / C$5,805.31 per ounce on the Gold Stock Corp live ticker — down 0.74 percent in Canadian-dollar terms — while silver firmed to US$57.57 / C$80.79 per ounce and platinum held around US$1,647.50 / C$2,307.90 per ounce. Brent crude near five-month highs, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy targets, kept inflation concerns front and centre. The Federal Reserve remained in its blackout period ahead of the October 27 to 28 meeting, with markets pricing a low chance of an October Fed move but roughly 92 percent odds of a hike in December. The Canadian story this week is the Bank of Canada. After Governor Tiff Macklem signalled the Bank expects to raise its inflation forecast substantially because of persistently elevated crude oil and petroleum product prices, overnight swap markets moved the odds of an October 28 rate hike from about 30 percent on Friday to roughly 80 percent by Monday evening, and the loonie touched its strongest level in nearly four weeks as USD/CAD pressed toward 1.4000. The repricing followed Monday's September CPI, which rose to 3.1 percent year over year on a 27.8 percent jump in gasoline, even as core measures cooled — CPI-trim at 1.8 percent, CPI-median at 1.9 percent and CPI-common at 2.4 percent. For Canadian buyers, the firmer loonie did part of the work on Tuesday: gold fell further in Canadian dollars than it did in US dollars. For investors: October 28 is now a double-decision day — the Bank of Canada at 9:45 AM ET and the Federal Reserve at 2:00 PM ET. With markets pricing roughly four BoC hikes through next September and December Fed hike odds near 92 percent, Canadian-dollar gold will move on the exchange rate as much as on spot. Support below US$4,100 has drawn buyers all month, and dips in Canadian-dollar terms — cushioned or amplified by the loonie — remain the accumulation zones while both central banks are in play. For jewelers: a slightly softer Canadian-dollar gold price, down from Monday's C$5,843 close on the ticker, eases restocking costs, while silver holding near C$80.79 and platinum near C$2,307.90 keep fabrication economics workable. Friday's Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs, and next week's twin rate decisions, can reset quotes quickly — confirming metal pricing early in the week helps protect margins. Coming up — events that will move metals this week: Wednesday, October 21, 2:00 AM ET — UK CPI (September): another hot global inflation print would reinforce higher-for-longer pricing on both sides of the Atlantic and pressure bullion through yields. Thursday, October 22, 8:30 AM ET — US initial jobless claims: the survey week for October payrolls, watched closely during the Fed blackout; a soft print would ease hike expectations and support metals, while a firm print does the opposite. Friday, October 23, 8:30 AM ET — Canada retail sales (August), followed by S&P Global US flash PMIs at 9:45 AM ET and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading at 10:00 AM ET: the last full data round before the October 28 decisions. Tuesday, October 28, 9:45 AM ET — Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, with the Federal Reserve decision at 2:00 PM ET the same day: swap markets price roughly 80 percent odds of a BoC hike after Governor Macklem's inflation warning, making this the biggest single day of the quarter for the loonie and for Canadian-dollar bullion prices. Thursday, October 29, 8:30 AM ET — US advance Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge: the first read on how the December Fed decision is likely to lean. Live prices: https://www.goldstocklive.com