Canada inflation cools at the core as gold edges higher near US$4,175 — Precious Metals Daily Update, October 19, 2026

Gold edged higher on Monday morning, holding around US$4,175 / C$5,862.35 per ounce, with silver around US$57.54 / C$80.76 per ounce and platinum around US$1,642 / C$2,316.43 per ounce. Cooler oil prices eased inflation concerns at the start of the week, while a firm dollar and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5.1 percent kept a lid on larger gains. The move came as the Federal Reserve entered its blackout period ahead of the October 27 to 28 meeting, with markets pricing about a 16 percent chance of a hike this month and about a 92 percent chance by December. Canada's September inflation data, released at 8:30 AM ET, rose to 3.1 percent year over year, below the 3.2 percent consensus and driven almost entirely by gasoline, which was up 27.8 percent year over year. Core measures eased, with CPI-trim at 1.8 percent, CPI-median at 1.9 percent and CPI-common at 2.4 percent, and inflation excluding gasoline slowed to 2.2 percent. In China, third-quarter GDP grew 4.5 percent year over year, beating the 4.4 percent forecast, with industrial production up 5.5 percent and retail sales up 1.1 percent, supporting industrial demand for silver and platinum. For investors: with no Fed speakers until after the October 28 decision, data will drive prices this week. Canada's softer core reading was the last inflation print before the Bank of Canada meets on October 28, where markets expect a hold at 2.25 percent. Gold holding above Friday's US$4,165 close despite yields above 5 percent shows underlying demand remains firm. Dips remain accumulation zones while the December hike path is reassessed. For jewelers: silver's recovery toward US$57.54 after last week's slide and platinum's steadiness support restocking ahead of the holiday season, but Friday's flash PMIs could reset prices quickly. Confirming metal pricing early in the week, before the PMI and sentiment releases, helps protect fabrication margins if yields move again. Coming up — events that will move metals this week: Tuesday, October 20, 9:15 PM ET (Monday night) — People's Bank of China loan prime rate decision, expected to hold at 3.00 percent and 3.50 percent: a surprise cut would support Chinese demand for gold, silver and platinum, while a hold confirms Beijing is relying on targeted support after the GDP beat. Wednesday, October 21, 2:00 AM ET — UK CPI (September), consensus 3.4 percent year over year versus 3.1 percent prior: another hot global inflation print would reinforce higher-for-longer pricing and pressure bullion through yields. Tesla and Meta earnings after the close will also set risk tone. Thursday, October 22, 8:30 AM ET — US initial jobless claims, consensus around 200,000 versus 199,000 prior: this is the survey week for October payrolls, so a soft print would ease hike expectations and support metals, while a firm print does the opposite. Friday, October 23, 9:45 AM ET — S&P Global US flash PMIs (October), manufacturing consensus 55.6 versus 55.9 prior and services 57.9 versus 58.8 prior, followed at 10:00 AM ET by the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading: the prices-paid components matter most in the Fed blackout, as strong activity with rising prices would keep December hike odds high. Canada retail sales for August are also due at 8:30 AM ET that morning. Live prices: https://www.goldstocklive.com